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#114 - 02/19/02 01:18 AM The future of modern graded cards?
Anonymous Unregistered



I am curious to hear other peoples opinions of the seemingly uncertain future of graded card values. Over the last year, there has been a steady decline in nearly all the prices of modern graded cards. I have quite a bit of money invested in sportscards and am debating with myself whether the market value will continue to drop. Please give me some feedback. Thanks!
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#115 - 02/20/02 03:56 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
ktronis
If I just sell the car, I can up my bid...


Registered: 02/06/02
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Loc: Baltimore, MD

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I just got back into cards last year after not having touched them since I was a kid (now I'm 33). My only advice would be to divest out of the "hot" rookie cards for guys that have only been around a year or two. It's likely the guy will have to wind up with a HOF career for his cards to maintain the same level of BV's over time. That of course is an unknown considering injuries and the fact that some guys just never reach superstardom, even though they are productive players.

You may even want to divest out of some or all of your tip-top grades like 9's and 10's of your modern cards. I think 10's MAY hold their value over time, but that's a big "if". With the great care people excercise these days when handling cards, you have to think that 9's are pretty common, and even 10's are not unheard of.

You could always use the proceeds to invest in some older cards, such as pre-1975 issues.

Well I'm no expert, but I hope this all helps!
_________________________
Phil Former ID was WhiteTornado

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#116 - 02/20/02 04:02 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
ktronis
If I just sell the car, I can up my bid...


Registered: 02/06/02
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This reminded me of something I read the other day on another forum...

A guy said he pulled a serial-numbered Kobe Bryant card, of which very few were made. He wound up selling it for $1400!

That's an incredible amount of money for a player who's done great things, but has had a very short career so far. I'm sure you could take that $1400 and invest in some HOFer rookie cards from 30+ years ago and be much better off in the long run.
_________________________
Phil Former ID was WhiteTornado

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#117 - 03/05/02 10:40 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
Anonymous Unregistered



Hello, I have been dealing in graded cards for as long as the grading card boom took and before there was a grading card boom. I will tell you that if all your money is in newer graded that I think you will experience a decline in value over time. Remember a card from today comes out of the pack, goes into a soft sleeve and into a hard holder, where is the chance of it getting much worse then a 9 or a 10. You hear all the stories, everyones parents or grandparents will tell you that they had these wonderful collections as kids, what happened to these collections, they were thrown out leaving what is out there now alot more limited then any post 1975 card. Its hard to say what is going to be worth something 5 or 10 or 20 years from now. I can say if you like the player and you are speculating on future possiblities, I would only invest in Gem MInt 10's, especially if dealing in cards from 1981 and up. Remember as more 10's are given the price goes down. Believe or not there has been over 40,000 1989 Upperdeck Ken Griffey, Jr Rookies graded by PSA alone, over 1000 receiving 10's and thats just PSA, not including SGC, BGS and all the other minor companies. The one card I can't see ever really lose their value is if you are looking for short or long term investments is Pre-1970 Hall of Fame graded cards, especially Mickey Mantle and other major stars as himself. I am 27 and have been around the card market since I was a kid, so I feel I have a good grasp on what sells and what is worth holding on too.
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#118 - 05/13/02 05:13 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
Anonymous Unregistered



I don't collect the cards for the "value", I collect cards that reflect my interests. If my cards gain a little value, that is fine, but I am not collecting them so I could eventually retire. *laughs*



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#119 - 06/12/02 08:04 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
Fabfrank
(S)uper Collector


Registered: 06/11/02
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As you can read from the previous posts, the majority of collectors will tell you that there is little value and/or investment potential to modern graded cards. In most cases they are right. But like in any market, there are niches of value to be found. That is the true issue. Most modern card collectors have a hodge-podge of players, hot rookies, inserts, and game-jersey cards int heir collection.
If you want to focus on modern graded cards, #1 collect the premium brands (SP Authentic, Ultra, Reserve etc.) These brands tend to hold their value over their lower tier brands (topps, fleer, score, donruss) #2 Try to submit your own cards for grading rather than buying already graded cards. This is definitely the cheaper way to go. #3 Most importantly, collect what you like. If it goes up in value-GREAT! If not- you will always get the enjoyment from owning the card.

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#120 - 06/21/02 12:07 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
Anonymous Unregistered



I think that modern graded cards are not holding value because too many cards are being produced. If you want to invest in the modern cards stick with SGC 92s or 96s. The Gem mints are no good unless you get a good deal on them and can turn them over. Rookies are too dangerous to spend the money on I think. The Gems sell for lots of $$$ but there are many Gems out there. Be sure to check the Population reports and do your homework otherwise a rookie could go down hill and your money too.

Personally I stick with players that have performed well already like Piazza, Bagwell, Bonds, Griffey Jr., Randy Johnson, Clemens, future HOFs.

I would invest 50% in HOF material and 50% in rookies. That's my opinion.

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#121 - 06/22/02 10:21 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
Fabfrank
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Willscards- Welcome to the board. It's true, there are too many modern cards produced. That's why someone collecting modern sets should stick with the premium brands. Also there are some modern sets that will be extremely tough to put together in the future. Those are the sets with numbered shortprints. Look at some of the SP Authentic sets where the shortprints are numbered to 1000 -1500 cards. You rarely see these complete sets offered for sale. Now add in the fact that some of these cards are put into singles collections, others into team set collections and the fact that not many collectors can afford to put a set together and you can see that these sets have some investment potential.
Even if every shortprint is put into a set, the most sets available would be based on the number of shortpints. Check Ebay and see how few complete sets have been offered. When one is offered it usually goes for above Beckett Hi.
The good news is that you can get many of these cards in mint condition.
I'm currently working on a 2000 SP Authentic football set in SGC 96. I'm also working on 1998, 99,and 2001 SP Authentic sets in PSA 9.
I can't wait till SGC gets its Set Registry up so I can post my cards.

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#122 - 06/23/02 02:00 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: Fabfrank]
Anonymous Unregistered



Good to be here Fabfrank,

You are right about the premium brands being a good investment and the short-prints.

Personally, I collect the regular issues. Of course that is NOT where the money is folks. Do not invest in the regular issues. Invest in Regular Issues = No $


Fabfrank, what about the inserts are they good investments?

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#123 - 06/23/02 02:14 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
Fabfrank
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I collect regular issues also. But if you are going to collect with an eye for investment, you have to go with the premium brands.
When people ask me what they should collect. What do I think will go up in value. I always tell them "collect what you like. If it goes up in value-GREAT! If not, you'll still have the pleasure of owning the cards"

As for inserts, Rob Veres of "Burbank Cards" says that inserts for the mid-90's are some of his best sellers. I tend to agree with him. If you didn't put together an unsert set when it first came out, it is difficult to find these cards now. They don't tend to book for a lot of $ so dealers don't bring them to shows or post them on Ebay. If you are looking for any particular insert try Burbank Cards (Rob also writes a column for Beckett.com or Neil Hoppenworths cards. They both have extensive single card inventories.

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#124 - 06/23/02 02:18 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
Anonymous Unregistered



True parents and grandparents collections were thrown away but in the 70s card conventions started popping up and people kept cards in good shape just like today.
Cards from the 70s are limited but some cards were taken care of and some were double-printed too. Overall I agree that cards from the 70s are harder to find in good shape,so the value will be more stable then todays cards that are coming out.

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#125 - 06/23/02 02:28 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: Fabfrank]
Anonymous Unregistered



The inserts are neat looking that's for sure. Game-Used Jerseys and Bats are interesting too. I will look into them further before I buy. I don't own too many inserts. No Game-Used Jerseys or Bats yet.



Now I'm getting a craving for premium modern cards.

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#126 - 06/23/02 03:28 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
vayank
The Amazing Card-Man


Registered: 04/13/02
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Before I got into my '77 SGC set, I focused on SGC 98 Gem of young up and comers and HOFers. The 98 grade guarantees some scarcity. And there is some satisfaction own a card beautiful enough to be a SGC gem.
_________________________
---- Matthew T. Natale Alexandria, Virginia Completed 1977 Topps Baseball SGC Graded Set, Average Grade 92.89

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#127 - 07/12/02 10:24 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
vic6string
The Collectinator


Registered: 04/25/02
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I am pretty much out of collecting as an investment too, and plan to sell off most of my collection other than the stuff I like just for the sake of having it. The sportscard makers have cut their own heads off. When I was a kid, I collected sets and all the cards of my favorite players. At one point, I had every card made of Steve Garvey, and almost every Nolan Ryan (missing about 3). These were both players with (at that point) long prestigous careers. This amounted to something like 90-100 cards (and that is including league leaders, allstars, record breakers, etc, even Kellogs and Post cereal and Ralston Purina cards) Now, players like Barry Bonds and Derek Jeter might have 100 cards in any given year!!! Aside from this, you have two choices, you can buy the cheap stuff that is virtually worthless, or you can spend literally thousands of dollars trying to make that one hot set. And you don't know what the hot set is until the season is doen because last year's best set always gets outdaone the next year. Then you get to wait a few years and watch the price guides inch slowly down while the real world prices plummet! Aside from this, the sports themselves have changed. My favorite team growing up was the LA Dodgers. Every year, I knew Garvey was on first, Cey at third, Lopes at second, Russell at SS, and either Yeager or Sciosia catching. Now teams can't be held together with crazy glue for more than 3 or 4 seasons (and that's just the Yankees). I know alot of collectors who have outright quit, and I can't blame them. Now I make the Topps football set every year for 2 reasons: 1) I want to catalog my favorite sport year by year, and 2) it is the only company where I can go back 30 or 40 years and make a full set. Not All Topps, mind you, just Topps (and the chrome and finest and other sets I have already made).
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#128 - 07/22/02 01:18 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: vic6string]
wolvergeek
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Registered: 04/01/02
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Totally agree with you Vic. I am going to be selling off all of my BGS 9 football cards this August/September and bailing on this ridiculous hobby. Too many sets, too many #d rookies (some who never even play a game!), too many gimmicks.
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#129 - 08/04/02 08:48 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: wolvergeek]
HonusWagner
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Registered: 08/02/02
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Loc: Toronto, Ontario

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The best modern day cards to collect are SP Authentic Rookies, they are #'ed and very high in demand and because of that they are worth a lot.


HW

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#130 - 08/23/02 08:07 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
Lothar52
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I am new to the board..hello all...here is my speal on the story....im a 25 yr old who like most re-entered collecting in 99 after the debacle of greedy card companie in the early 90s (ie bullpoop inserts...hahaha..how much for a 92 griffey fleer ultra award winners insert now!). At any rate, i have gotten into vintage collecting recently, and done so at a great cost...ive been selling my modern graded cards for almost half of what i paid in order to gain the capital.......for example i sold a psa 10 couch sp authentic for 450 wheni paid 650....etc etc... what did i buy??? i bought some graded 56 topps cards like mantle and mays, bank and koufax....i bought a Aaron RC graded nm with centering. At any rate, i did this cause as a formerly stupid collector, i have seen the light that vintage maintain value, while modern is more (what have u donefor me lately)- take bonds for ex, lastyear he is going toward a record.. GOING TOWARD... rc 87 fleer was 150 in mint this time last year...now its 50... and he HAS the record and even entered a more elite hr group and is heading toward a possible batting title. What does this mean?? It means the collecting world is rather idiotic and unworthy of trust....so dont trust it...."invest" in the earlier years cause like a fine wine..it just gets better!!! I know i know..everyone went out and bought a bonds RC...and now ..everyone has one and nobody wants it...so dealers lower the price....well...everyone CANT have a 56 mantle...so the value stays stable or increases...ok im done rambling...let me know what ya think
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#131 - 08/24/02 03:43 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: Lothar52]
chuckster
Hobbyist


Registered: 07/16/02
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Although I do believe there are still good deals and cards to be found in the modern products, I also have shifted my collecting focus to vintage only. As we all know, there are simply too many modern brands and issues. I guess it's good that the consumer has a chance to choose favorites, but I prefer the simpler days of card collecting. The future of modern graded cards? - I believe the market will find its own level. As long as there are sports fans, people will have their favorites that they will collect.
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#132 - 08/24/02 05:08 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
Lothar52
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here is my theory on the the future of modern cards...graded or not....

its quiteeasy to see what the card companies are doing... in 98 when SP authentic football and SPx(america sport I should add bot not americas hobby love...strange eh..)came out with # rookies the hobby went mad.... it literally brought me back into collecting...6 yrs i was gone. The card companies KNEW IT TOO... they thought..ok..we have to limit the supply..but we need to sell mass in order to keep the profits going up and not just make for example one set..the popular set...can u imagine... UD comes out and says...no more CRAP rookies that willl sell on ebay for 10 cents after the initial 10 dollar buzz wears of... we just make SP Authentic and SPX and call it at that across the board... so... then it came.. using fleer as an example from the first and last yeari got back into mass collecting...1999..... Fleer tradition, Fleer Ultra, Fleer Mystique, Fleer Focus, Fleer Flair showcase, skybox metal, skybox premium, skyboxwhatever..... the point it they now all say limited...but they didnt limit anything...a mcnabb ROOKIE mystique #2999 is now available for 10bucks compared to 30to40 when it came otu cause people realized the market is still flooded with MCNABB in GENERAL.... hence this is the reason why there are too many sets... to trick us into thinking everything is rare and there still producing mass cards just switching out the plates and making a "different version" of the same years cards... jesus were we all galable or what.. stick with topps from 54 to early 80s.... cant go wrong with them..they were made before greed entered the hobby in not only the dreaded dealer...but the d#$% card companies as well.

however for the future is there a way to get back to the good ole days?? no way..not when they can do there current system..sell boxes of 3 cards/pack for 5 bucks a pack (ridiculous) and the idiot masses. My advice is to buy sp authentic for football.... but wait till they are estabilished..never buy right away... who knowswho thenext akili smith / ryan leaf is and u dont want to getburned... forget about set making... its impossible for the real high end cards... maybe if u really want one go with UD VICTORY??? or tradition??? anyway...it will never be like it was .... so just stick to the old and remmeber the good ole days.... i just shutter at our kids.... they wont everbe able to collect nothing but victory!
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I love CAKE....

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#133 - 10/13/02 04:48 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: wolvergeek]
Anonymous Unregistered



I'm basically bailing from this hobby also, but for more reasons than that. I will keep my vintage and so-called "unreleased" cards. May even get those graded.
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#134 - 10/29/02 08:02 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
Captain_Pike
Collector is an understatement.


Registered: 05/13/02
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If you abandon/quit collecting modern cards-you'll probably regret it in the future. I returned to collecting after the 1995 season & missed 1992 Bowman, 1993 SP & Finest, 1994 SP. The reason why most modern collectors enjoy the "NEW STUFF" is the rush of opening packs & getting a great Rookie Card. For Baseball fan, just stick with Bowman Chrome. Bowman Chrome has been around for 6 years & only 1998 BC Series 2 has been a total waste!!
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#135 - 06/11/03 10:51 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: Captain_Pike]
autobilia
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Nah.. newer stuff for the most part is not good for investment since there are too many different rookies of each player unlike the vintage days of 1-3 RCs max.
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#136 - 06/12/03 11:16 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: autobilia]
Fabfrank
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Autobilia- You are partly right. Yes there are many more Rc's available today when compared to vintage, but there is usually 1 RC that stands out as the best. It's usually SP Authentic or SPX. That's the one that makes the best investment, if you are investing in a particular player.
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#137 - 06/12/03 11:57 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: Fabfrank]
autobilia
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Yes, but problem is, EVERYTHING comes out overpriced to the point there is no direction for it to go but down. How can you have a RC of a person yet to play in a major league game go for $60-$80? Why invest in that when a Monte Irvin Bowman RC goes for the same price or less.
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#138 - 06/12/03 12:12 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: autobilia]
vic6string
The Collectinator


Registered: 04/25/02
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Tell me about it. I picked up a Tony Dorsett rookie that I am going to send in...probably a 96 or better as it is flawless and centered beautifully. Got it for 30 bucks. He is arguably one of the top 10 backs of all time in the NFL, and without question one of the top 3 college backs of all time. He was a first ballot hall of famer, and that year were some tough cards to get in high grade. Now I can't get even one of the lamer rookie cards of any top 20 pick this year for that kind of cash. There will be no big influx of high grade Dorsett rookie cards in the near future, he isn't going to get any worse, they aren't going to pull him from the hall of fame anytime soon. How many rookies from this year's class will make it big? a dozen at most. How many hall of famers? Maybe a couple. How many that compare to Dorsett? Probably none... maybe one or two if the stars line up just right. But people want hundreds for the hot rookies. Look at Ichiro rookie cards. Is he a great player? sure. Popular? definately. Hall of famer? I doubt it. He started way too late in life here at the major league level. He has gotten a little worse from year to year, and is already pushing 30. Still people pay more for his premium rookie cards than they do for rookie cards of Wade Boggs, Rickey Henderson, Paul Molitor, and Tony Gwynn... all surefire first ballot hall of famers with similar skills. If he starts going south in a couple of years, that 3 digit investment will be unsellable at 10 bucks. I don't care if it was a print run of 1.
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#139 - 06/14/03 03:51 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: vic6string]
Bonds25
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Does anyone have an idea what this would have sold for 3 or 4 years ago? I haven't bought a graded card in years, and figured this would be worth $30 or $40, not $10? Has the market slumped that bad, or is this card just not popular?

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=2734882461&category=28088&rd=1

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#140 - 06/16/03 06:23 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: Bonds25]
autobilia
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That Helton is a minor league card. That's why it went low. People are now realizing SGC's motto "Buy the card, not the holder".
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#141 - 06/16/03 10:43 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: autobilia]
Bonds25
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I thought that the minor league cards were more valuable than the rookie cards since they're much more rare. No??
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#142 - 06/18/03 11:53 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: Bonds25]
autobilia
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Problem with minor league is that they are easily counterfeited. A lot of them are printed up by local printing presses.
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#143 - 06/26/03 09:09 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
limitededition
Learning the Ropes


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Modern cards are a bad investment. Period.
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#144 - 11/23/03 06:13 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
Markbowtie
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I for one having my fill of vintage cards now collect todays cards for one simple reason. The inserts are really really limited. Some, and the ones I've now added to my collection are so limited that the price can't drop. Lets take a few for example

2003 Leaf Certified Gold Mark Prior 44/50
2003 SP Chirography Giambi/Sosa/Griffey Autos 32/75
2003 Playoffs Prime Cuts Auto Vladimir Guerrero 16/25
2003 Donruss Elite Diecut Josh Beckett 3/24
2003 Leaf Carlos Beltran Hat/Jersey 10/10
2003 Leaf Lumberjacks Bat Alfonso Soriano 1/10
2003 Leaf Mirror Emerald Josh Beckett 4/5
2003 Leaf Mirror Emerald Ryan Klesko 1/5
2003 Upper Deck SP Chirography Auto Brian Giles 12/24

Now thats just a few of this years/last years cards I've added to my collection. I haven't gotten any of them graded yet but each will be in the 9 or 10 range. Now since they are so limited right now and Ive checked and not one of these cards has been graded yet how many will there be in 40 years when they become vintage? Can anyone say they're vintage cards are that limited? And if they are then how can they collect them?

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#145 - 11/23/03 07:44 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: Markbowtie]
PhilliesPhan
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Markbowtie:

It certainly sounds like you have some neat cards -- including many that are very limited in nature. The bottom line with collecting is that you should collect what you want and what you enjoy. From a financial perspective -- there are but a few of all the cards ever produced that would be considered a good investment in the long-term.

To play Devil's Advocate to your post, I would merely suggest the following:

Even though many of your cards are limited in and of themselves, how many different "limited" cards of each player are produced each year? I don't know the answer -- but I know the answer is pretty high. For example, there are 24 diecut Josh Beckett cards, of whick you own one. How many Josh Beckett cards from 2003 have a printrun of less than one hundred? What differentiates your Elite Diecut from the literally dozens of other Beckett cards with low print runs from 2003? Just because a card is limited, does not necessarily mean the price can't drop. It can. To make a limited card retain or appreciate in value -- it must be highly desired and collected by the collecting masses. Now, you take Josh Beckett as the example here. How many limited print run cards did he have in 2002? Before? How many will he have in 2004? (probably a lot!), and probably every year for the rest of his career. Given that modern players seem to have thousands of different cards if you include all of the iterations, paralells, game-used, etc. -- to make your card retain value, it must be different from all the rest.

At the end of teh day, collect what you want. It does sound like you have a bunch of neat cards. I hope, though, that you are collecting for the fun of the hobby as opposed to grandiose dreams of capital appreciation.

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#146 - 11/24/03 02:37 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: PhilliesPhan]
Markbowtie
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Phillies, first off let me say sorry on another sad season. Being a Mets fan myself I know how you feel to sit and watch your team fumble away another year. Only pleasure I had was getting to watch the Yanks lose!!!!!

But onto our topic here and I'll be glad to take the bait and debate this a bit with you. Your 100% right about there being alot of different limited cards of each player every year. Trick I guess is to get the ones that do stand out on their own. Take the Mirror Emerald Ryan Klesko. The 2003 Leaf Certified is considered by the hobby to be the #1 brand this year. The inserts in it are just awesome and alone standout from everyother brand released. But to take it one step further, this Klesko card has a 4 color "Black,Red,White and Grey" swatch in it. Now considering there are only 5 cards to begin with this is more than likely the only 1 with a swatch like that. My Josh Beckett of the same brand and insert only has a 2 color "Grey and White" swatch.

The Carlos Beltran card from this same Leaf set is the only card this year to feature 2 pieces of memoribilia in set this limited. Only 10 made and it has a piece of Hat and 2 color Jersey.

One card I didn't mention in the first post was my 2003 Donruss Garrett Anderson Auto. Reason that stands out is it's the only card he's ever added below his auto "WS Champs 02" With only 75 made and I have 37/75 its a solid choice to include in my collection. Now while he's with the Angels I know this will never go up in value and will more than likely drop. But one can pray for a trade to a real team. LOL

Guess the way to collect in this day and age is to do your homework and first find out whats the pick by the hobby as the #1 brand. Don't rely on just one source like Becketts but watch auctions and visit as many hobby shops as possible to see whats selling and what isn't. At least this is the way I attack it.

But your also 100% right in collecting what brings you enjoyment. I've been doing this since I was a kid and i'm about to turn 45. I have Mantle, Mays Etc from the late 50s and 60s but just enjoy todays cards more. There just so much more diverse and add that funky memoribilia in the cards which is so fun. But I'm strictly a collector and never sell anything as thats not my goal in all of this. Offbeat funky memoribilia and very limited memoribilia cards is what brings me the enjoyment these days and the look on my friends faces when they visit my basement/showroom is enough payment for me thank you.

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#147 - 11/25/03 07:26 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: Markbowtie]
srs1a
Old, dense-headed hammers are cool. Best nail pounders.


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Markbowtie,

Welcome to the boards!

While we share a similar collecting history (I'll be turning 45 within a month and I've collected on and off since '68), our philosophies on collecting couldn't be much different. My focus is entirely on vintage, but I do pick up a box of modern cards from time to time.

The explosion in the number of products on the market, especially high-end products, drove me from the modern market in the mid-90s. I continue to pick up some modern products, but focus on those issues that include HOF signature cards -- I loved '00 and '01 Fleer Greats of the Game, '02 Sweetspot Classics, '02 Topps Archives Reserve, etc. My best recent pull was from a box of '02 UD that I picked up on a lark -- a Nolan Ryan jersey + autograph (numbered to 200). While it is not "ultra-scarce", it is a really cool card.

I completely agree with Marc S on real scarcity -vs- perceived scarcity. There may well be 20 different issues with "ultra-scarce" insert sets. And, on the "hot" set of the year -- that distinction may last 12 months, if you're lucky.

And, in the end, we all collect what makes us happy.

Again, welcome to the boards and good luck with your collection.

Scott

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#148 - 11/25/03 10:35 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: Markbowtie]
Fabfrank
(S)uper Collector


Registered: 06/11/02
Posts: 293

Offline
Markbowtie- Welcome to the boards. Good to hear some fresh input. Especially on modern cards. You have very good points and a good plan in how you want to build your collection. I'm similar in my modern collecting in that I try to get one GU(jersey card) and one autograph card of my favorite players. I prefer unique/multi color swatches for my GU but basically look for the least expensive card. The reason many of the "limited" inserts don't hold their value is because every product has some #/100 limited card of almost every player. Now multiply those products over every year, and although specific issue can be rare and limited, a players "Limited" edition cards can become easily available. The key for these limited cards to hold their value is if collectors look to collect the specific set that they are in.
Meantime, collect what you like and you'll never be disappointed.

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#149 - 11/26/03 06:00 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: Markbowtie]
vic6string
The Collectinator


Registered: 04/25/02
Posts: 366
Loc: Miami, Florida

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Supply and demand dictates prices, not just supply. Let's look at the vintage market vs the modern market.As an example, we will take two players: Mickey Mantle and Derek Jeter. Now add to that a third player...some new rookie coming out next year for the Yankees that will be the next big thing. Call him Yankee Bob. Now lets look at these factors that affect demand:

1) Baseball was much more popular 30, 40, 50 years ago than today.
2) Sportscard collecting was much more popular. Go to any baseball card show and you are going to see 20 old men buying cards for every kid walking around, and half the kids want yu-gi-oh or whatever the next big thing is, not sportscards.
3) Many people try to collect sets. That is almost impossible now because of all the superlimited cards and high up-front costs. 30 years ago you could buy some packs, trade with friends, and build a set in a few weeks. Now you have to search E-Bay religiously and spend a mint to get as close as you can.
4) Many people collect their favorite player. Jeter had more different cards in his first 2 or 3 years than Mantle had in his career. Bob will have more before he ever plays a game than Mantle did. Peopl just don't try to collect all their favorite player's cards because it is virtually impossible.
5) There are SO MANY different super premium ultra rare cards that none of them stand out. I know the 52 topps Mantle is rare. I can remember that. It sticks out. Even if I was a huge Jeter fan and card collector, I couldn't name all the cards he has with print runs under 500. Sure, I could name a few. Someone else could name a few others. Everyone has their favorites, but none really stand out.

This is just the beginning. Remeber, the main rule is things are only worth what someone is willing to give you for them. If a card has a print run of 5, but 3 are for sale and only 1 person wants it, it's only worth what the cheapest seller is willing to take. If something has a print run of 25,000, but 5000 are for sale and 20,000 people want it, it is a sellers market. Supply and demand, not just supply.

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#150 - 11/26/03 12:25 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: vic6string]
estang
(S)uper Collector


Registered: 11/15/02
Posts: 496

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Nice post Vic. Good observations and points on the flaws of modern cards. I think this cannot be tackled by the manufacturers, but rather the players association and more importantly the major sports leagues (NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB).

Dollars are at stake, and when chosing between the leagues and the manufacturers, on which can absorb short-term revenue loss, it's going to be the leagues.

I was interested in purchasing some rookie Joe Maurer (C, MN Twins) cards. Ultimately I decided not to, because I didn't know where to start. I find it modestly challenging to figure out what is the best Barry Bonds rookies to collect in high-grade slabs. To compare that to Joe Maurer, Derek Jeter, etc... it just becomes dizzying.

The major sports leagues and player associations need to put strict limits on the amount of brands that are generated. If they did that and reduced their prices, they would find a new legion of card collectors out there. Outside of Target and Wall-Mart most major drug stores don't carry cards any longer.

For example, Topps would do well to have three brands. One base brand that encompasses the players, teams, records, league leaders, trades, and season/playoff highlights. These cards shouldn't go for more than 99 cents a 12 - 15 card pack. Inserts or chase cards should be put at a minimum. A second brand that does archives or vintage material that is mid-premium or second tier. This is where they re-print older cards and insert autos and game-used material. Their super premium brand then becomes a select amount of cards that target the best players and unique material.

_________________________
Enjoy Your Collection & SKOL VIKINGS!

Erik

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#151 - 12/25/03 04:49 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: estang]
FlComicFan
Talkative?


Registered: 10/27/02
Posts: 894

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Nice thing is most rookies from the 70's and 80's have become dirt cheap. When you can pick up HOFérs for so cheap in all sports I'd buy them up before gadget and insert cards No matter what those short printed new cards are "created"collectibles I'd stick with vintage stuff that nobody though of putting away or at least keeping in top condition. Off topic is there a reason why most 80's unopened product divebombed in value so much? For example 1984 Donruss baseball was $500 a box at one time now maybe $125-150? 1990 Leaf series 2 was $350+ no $75 (Thomas is close to 500 hrs and sure thing HOFér) Unfortunately I think once players arent playing anymore or arent the new face the majority of collectors loose interest. People would rather pay tons of cash for Lebron James than buy sure fire rookies of stars like Karl malone, Charles barkley, John Stockton , Pippen etc Guys who already had great careers
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#152 - 01/04/04 01:37 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: estang]
vayank
The Amazing Card-Man


Registered: 04/13/02
Posts: 948
Loc: Alexandria, Va

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Quote:

Off topic is there a reason why most 80's unopened product divebombed in value so much? For example 1984 Donruss baseball was $500 a box at one time now maybe $125-150? 1990 Leaf series 2 was $350+ no $75 (Thomas is close to 500 hrs and sure thing HOFér) Unfortunately I think once players arent playing anymore or arent the new face the majority of collectors loose interest. People would rather pay tons of cash for Lebron James than buy sure fire rookies of stars like Karl malone, Charles barkley, John Stockton , Pippen etc Guys who already had great careers




More suppply than demand. For the most part, the investment value of post-1981 material is short term speculation. A player gets hot, a rookie emerges, the cards spikes -- and then drops. You have to strike while the iron is hot.

You might find all but the most limited LeBron material will eventually drop off. I would sell now if I collected the stuff, not because I don't think LeBron is for real, it's just now is the time maximize profits.

While there might not be a future, there is a "now" for modern graded cards. For the quick acting profit seeker, that is enough.
_________________________
---- Matthew T. Natale Alexandria, Virginia Completed 1977 Topps Baseball SGC Graded Set, Average Grade 92.89

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#153 - 01/06/04 06:56 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: vayank]
vic6string
The Collectinator


Registered: 04/25/02
Posts: 366
Loc: Miami, Florida

Offline
Actually, I think now is a good time to get some early 80s stuff. We are in a period where, as stated earlier, only the latest greatest hot stuff sells. There are two times a players cards sell right now: 1) when he first comes out and is the "next big thing" and 2) Just before a player makes it into the Hall of Fame. Guys that have been around for a while and are surefire HOFers but are still a few years from retirement are ignored, and guys already in the Hall are ignored. Right now, the only ones buying the early 80s stuff are people who really want it. These are the types that don't re-sell the stuff later, they are like me and pop them into albums and actually admire them once in a while. That dries up the supplies. Currently hot stuff is being bought by speculators only looking to re-sell. I think at current prices it is a great time to buy sets and some unopened stuff (although I lean towards sets) of classic years in the early 80s like 84 Topps football, 83 Topps ,and 84 Donruss Baseball. Late 70s has some great undervalued stuff now too. You can blow $40 on an unproven rookie just because it is a short print in the latest hot set, or you can get a near mint Tony Dorsett rookie, for instance. Sure, maybe 5 years from now the Dorsett will still be just a 50 or 60 dollar card, but how many of those super hot, short print, get em while they last, first listed in Beckett for $200 rookie cards are on Ebay 6 months after they come out for 20 bucks?
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#154 - 02/02/04 12:07 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: vic6string]
johnnycoolxx
Learning the Ropes


Registered: 01/25/04
Posts: 26

Offline
I would say that if youre a baseball collector and you want good investments, don't go with pitchers. Very few of them every pan out and hold their value. For every Clemens and Ryan, there are 20 Scott Ericksons and Tom Gordons. Even future HOF pitchers like Maddux aren't very expensive. So I would say that the hot rookie pitchers of today, like Prior, etc. will fall in value.
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#155 - 06/08/04 02:40 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: limitededition]
autobilia2
Hobbyist


Registered: 06/08/04
Posts: 54

Offline
Quote:

Modern cards are a bad investment. Period.




Not all. I collect unreleased cards (cards that slipped into packs). those are always rare and never have a book value.
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#156 - 01/06/06 10:24 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: Fabfrank]
autobilia2
Hobbyist


Registered: 06/08/04
Posts: 54

Offline
The problem with newer cards is that they are overpriced when they are released with no room to increase in value. So, if you were wanting to build a nice stable collection, if you pull a "Hot" RC, sell it immediately and then buy some vintage. You will be able to get that same "former" hot rc for 10-20% of what they are selling for 1-2 years down the line.
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