Page 4 of 5 <12345>
Topic Options
#144 - 11/23/03 06:13 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
Markbowtie
Just got here


Registered: 11/23/03
Posts: 3

Offline
I for one having my fill of vintage cards now collect todays cards for one simple reason. The inserts are really really limited. Some, and the ones I've now added to my collection are so limited that the price can't drop. Lets take a few for example

2003 Leaf Certified Gold Mark Prior 44/50
2003 SP Chirography Giambi/Sosa/Griffey Autos 32/75
2003 Playoffs Prime Cuts Auto Vladimir Guerrero 16/25
2003 Donruss Elite Diecut Josh Beckett 3/24
2003 Leaf Carlos Beltran Hat/Jersey 10/10
2003 Leaf Lumberjacks Bat Alfonso Soriano 1/10
2003 Leaf Mirror Emerald Josh Beckett 4/5
2003 Leaf Mirror Emerald Ryan Klesko 1/5
2003 Upper Deck SP Chirography Auto Brian Giles 12/24

Now thats just a few of this years/last years cards I've added to my collection. I haven't gotten any of them graded yet but each will be in the 9 or 10 range. Now since they are so limited right now and Ive checked and not one of these cards has been graded yet how many will there be in 40 years when they become vintage? Can anyone say they're vintage cards are that limited? And if they are then how can they collect them?

Top
#145 - 11/23/03 07:44 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: Markbowtie]
PhilliesPhan
Just got here


Registered: 11/22/03
Posts: 2

Offline
Markbowtie:

It certainly sounds like you have some neat cards -- including many that are very limited in nature. The bottom line with collecting is that you should collect what you want and what you enjoy. From a financial perspective -- there are but a few of all the cards ever produced that would be considered a good investment in the long-term.

To play Devil's Advocate to your post, I would merely suggest the following:

Even though many of your cards are limited in and of themselves, how many different "limited" cards of each player are produced each year? I don't know the answer -- but I know the answer is pretty high. For example, there are 24 diecut Josh Beckett cards, of whick you own one. How many Josh Beckett cards from 2003 have a printrun of less than one hundred? What differentiates your Elite Diecut from the literally dozens of other Beckett cards with low print runs from 2003? Just because a card is limited, does not necessarily mean the price can't drop. It can. To make a limited card retain or appreciate in value -- it must be highly desired and collected by the collecting masses. Now, you take Josh Beckett as the example here. How many limited print run cards did he have in 2002? Before? How many will he have in 2004? (probably a lot!), and probably every year for the rest of his career. Given that modern players seem to have thousands of different cards if you include all of the iterations, paralells, game-used, etc. -- to make your card retain value, it must be different from all the rest.

At the end of teh day, collect what you want. It does sound like you have a bunch of neat cards. I hope, though, that you are collecting for the fun of the hobby as opposed to grandiose dreams of capital appreciation.

Top
#146 - 11/24/03 02:37 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: PhilliesPhan]
Markbowtie
Just got here


Registered: 11/23/03
Posts: 3

Offline
Phillies, first off let me say sorry on another sad season. Being a Mets fan myself I know how you feel to sit and watch your team fumble away another year. Only pleasure I had was getting to watch the Yanks lose!!!!!

But onto our topic here and I'll be glad to take the bait and debate this a bit with you. Your 100% right about there being alot of different limited cards of each player every year. Trick I guess is to get the ones that do stand out on their own. Take the Mirror Emerald Ryan Klesko. The 2003 Leaf Certified is considered by the hobby to be the #1 brand this year. The inserts in it are just awesome and alone standout from everyother brand released. But to take it one step further, this Klesko card has a 4 color "Black,Red,White and Grey" swatch in it. Now considering there are only 5 cards to begin with this is more than likely the only 1 with a swatch like that. My Josh Beckett of the same brand and insert only has a 2 color "Grey and White" swatch.

The Carlos Beltran card from this same Leaf set is the only card this year to feature 2 pieces of memoribilia in set this limited. Only 10 made and it has a piece of Hat and 2 color Jersey.

One card I didn't mention in the first post was my 2003 Donruss Garrett Anderson Auto. Reason that stands out is it's the only card he's ever added below his auto "WS Champs 02" With only 75 made and I have 37/75 its a solid choice to include in my collection. Now while he's with the Angels I know this will never go up in value and will more than likely drop. But one can pray for a trade to a real team. LOL

Guess the way to collect in this day and age is to do your homework and first find out whats the pick by the hobby as the #1 brand. Don't rely on just one source like Becketts but watch auctions and visit as many hobby shops as possible to see whats selling and what isn't. At least this is the way I attack it.

But your also 100% right in collecting what brings you enjoyment. I've been doing this since I was a kid and i'm about to turn 45. I have Mantle, Mays Etc from the late 50s and 60s but just enjoy todays cards more. There just so much more diverse and add that funky memoribilia in the cards which is so fun. But I'm strictly a collector and never sell anything as thats not my goal in all of this. Offbeat funky memoribilia and very limited memoribilia cards is what brings me the enjoyment these days and the look on my friends faces when they visit my basement/showroom is enough payment for me thank you.

Top
#147 - 11/25/03 07:26 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: Markbowtie]
srs1a
Old, dense-headed hammers are cool. Best nail pounders.


Registered: 08/15/02
Posts: 987
Loc: NY

Offline
Markbowtie,

Welcome to the boards!

While we share a similar collecting history (I'll be turning 45 within a month and I've collected on and off since '68), our philosophies on collecting couldn't be much different. My focus is entirely on vintage, but I do pick up a box of modern cards from time to time.

The explosion in the number of products on the market, especially high-end products, drove me from the modern market in the mid-90s. I continue to pick up some modern products, but focus on those issues that include HOF signature cards -- I loved '00 and '01 Fleer Greats of the Game, '02 Sweetspot Classics, '02 Topps Archives Reserve, etc. My best recent pull was from a box of '02 UD that I picked up on a lark -- a Nolan Ryan jersey + autograph (numbered to 200). While it is not "ultra-scarce", it is a really cool card.

I completely agree with Marc S on real scarcity -vs- perceived scarcity. There may well be 20 different issues with "ultra-scarce" insert sets. And, on the "hot" set of the year -- that distinction may last 12 months, if you're lucky.

And, in the end, we all collect what makes us happy.

Again, welcome to the boards and good luck with your collection.

Scott

Top
#148 - 11/25/03 10:35 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: Markbowtie]
Fabfrank
(S)uper Collector


Registered: 06/11/02
Posts: 293

Offline
Markbowtie- Welcome to the boards. Good to hear some fresh input. Especially on modern cards. You have very good points and a good plan in how you want to build your collection. I'm similar in my modern collecting in that I try to get one GU(jersey card) and one autograph card of my favorite players. I prefer unique/multi color swatches for my GU but basically look for the least expensive card. The reason many of the "limited" inserts don't hold their value is because every product has some #/100 limited card of almost every player. Now multiply those products over every year, and although specific issue can be rare and limited, a players "Limited" edition cards can become easily available. The key for these limited cards to hold their value is if collectors look to collect the specific set that they are in.
Meantime, collect what you like and you'll never be disappointed.

Top
#149 - 11/26/03 06:00 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: Markbowtie]
vic6string
The Collectinator


Registered: 04/25/02
Posts: 366
Loc: Miami, Florida

Offline
Supply and demand dictates prices, not just supply. Let's look at the vintage market vs the modern market.As an example, we will take two players: Mickey Mantle and Derek Jeter. Now add to that a third player...some new rookie coming out next year for the Yankees that will be the next big thing. Call him Yankee Bob. Now lets look at these factors that affect demand:

1) Baseball was much more popular 30, 40, 50 years ago than today.
2) Sportscard collecting was much more popular. Go to any baseball card show and you are going to see 20 old men buying cards for every kid walking around, and half the kids want yu-gi-oh or whatever the next big thing is, not sportscards.
3) Many people try to collect sets. That is almost impossible now because of all the superlimited cards and high up-front costs. 30 years ago you could buy some packs, trade with friends, and build a set in a few weeks. Now you have to search E-Bay religiously and spend a mint to get as close as you can.
4) Many people collect their favorite player. Jeter had more different cards in his first 2 or 3 years than Mantle had in his career. Bob will have more before he ever plays a game than Mantle did. Peopl just don't try to collect all their favorite player's cards because it is virtually impossible.
5) There are SO MANY different super premium ultra rare cards that none of them stand out. I know the 52 topps Mantle is rare. I can remember that. It sticks out. Even if I was a huge Jeter fan and card collector, I couldn't name all the cards he has with print runs under 500. Sure, I could name a few. Someone else could name a few others. Everyone has their favorites, but none really stand out.

This is just the beginning. Remeber, the main rule is things are only worth what someone is willing to give you for them. If a card has a print run of 5, but 3 are for sale and only 1 person wants it, it's only worth what the cheapest seller is willing to take. If something has a print run of 25,000, but 5000 are for sale and 20,000 people want it, it is a sellers market. Supply and demand, not just supply.

Top
#150 - 11/26/03 12:25 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: vic6string]
estang
(S)uper Collector


Registered: 11/15/02
Posts: 496

Offline
Nice post Vic. Good observations and points on the flaws of modern cards. I think this cannot be tackled by the manufacturers, but rather the players association and more importantly the major sports leagues (NFL, NHL, NBA, MLB).

Dollars are at stake, and when chosing between the leagues and the manufacturers, on which can absorb short-term revenue loss, it's going to be the leagues.

I was interested in purchasing some rookie Joe Maurer (C, MN Twins) cards. Ultimately I decided not to, because I didn't know where to start. I find it modestly challenging to figure out what is the best Barry Bonds rookies to collect in high-grade slabs. To compare that to Joe Maurer, Derek Jeter, etc... it just becomes dizzying.

The major sports leagues and player associations need to put strict limits on the amount of brands that are generated. If they did that and reduced their prices, they would find a new legion of card collectors out there. Outside of Target and Wall-Mart most major drug stores don't carry cards any longer.

For example, Topps would do well to have three brands. One base brand that encompasses the players, teams, records, league leaders, trades, and season/playoff highlights. These cards shouldn't go for more than 99 cents a 12 - 15 card pack. Inserts or chase cards should be put at a minimum. A second brand that does archives or vintage material that is mid-premium or second tier. This is where they re-print older cards and insert autos and game-used material. Their super premium brand then becomes a select amount of cards that target the best players and unique material.

_________________________
Enjoy Your Collection & SKOL VIKINGS!

Erik

Top
#151 - 12/25/03 04:49 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: estang]
FlComicFan
Talkative?


Registered: 10/27/02
Posts: 894

Offline
Nice thing is most rookies from the 70's and 80's have become dirt cheap. When you can pick up HOFérs for so cheap in all sports I'd buy them up before gadget and insert cards No matter what those short printed new cards are "created"collectibles I'd stick with vintage stuff that nobody though of putting away or at least keeping in top condition. Off topic is there a reason why most 80's unopened product divebombed in value so much? For example 1984 Donruss baseball was $500 a box at one time now maybe $125-150? 1990 Leaf series 2 was $350+ no $75 (Thomas is close to 500 hrs and sure thing HOFér) Unfortunately I think once players arent playing anymore or arent the new face the majority of collectors loose interest. People would rather pay tons of cash for Lebron James than buy sure fire rookies of stars like Karl malone, Charles barkley, John Stockton , Pippen etc Guys who already had great careers
Top
#152 - 01/04/04 01:37 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: estang]
vayank
The Amazing Card-Man


Registered: 04/13/02
Posts: 948
Loc: Alexandria, Va

Offline
Quote:

Off topic is there a reason why most 80's unopened product divebombed in value so much? For example 1984 Donruss baseball was $500 a box at one time now maybe $125-150? 1990 Leaf series 2 was $350+ no $75 (Thomas is close to 500 hrs and sure thing HOFér) Unfortunately I think once players arent playing anymore or arent the new face the majority of collectors loose interest. People would rather pay tons of cash for Lebron James than buy sure fire rookies of stars like Karl malone, Charles barkley, John Stockton , Pippen etc Guys who already had great careers




More suppply than demand. For the most part, the investment value of post-1981 material is short term speculation. A player gets hot, a rookie emerges, the cards spikes -- and then drops. You have to strike while the iron is hot.

You might find all but the most limited LeBron material will eventually drop off. I would sell now if I collected the stuff, not because I don't think LeBron is for real, it's just now is the time maximize profits.

While there might not be a future, there is a "now" for modern graded cards. For the quick acting profit seeker, that is enough.
_________________________
---- Matthew T. Natale Alexandria, Virginia Completed 1977 Topps Baseball SGC Graded Set, Average Grade 92.89

Top
#153 - 01/06/04 06:56 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: vayank]
vic6string
The Collectinator


Registered: 04/25/02
Posts: 366
Loc: Miami, Florida

Offline
Actually, I think now is a good time to get some early 80s stuff. We are in a period where, as stated earlier, only the latest greatest hot stuff sells. There are two times a players cards sell right now: 1) when he first comes out and is the "next big thing" and 2) Just before a player makes it into the Hall of Fame. Guys that have been around for a while and are surefire HOFers but are still a few years from retirement are ignored, and guys already in the Hall are ignored. Right now, the only ones buying the early 80s stuff are people who really want it. These are the types that don't re-sell the stuff later, they are like me and pop them into albums and actually admire them once in a while. That dries up the supplies. Currently hot stuff is being bought by speculators only looking to re-sell. I think at current prices it is a great time to buy sets and some unopened stuff (although I lean towards sets) of classic years in the early 80s like 84 Topps football, 83 Topps ,and 84 Donruss Baseball. Late 70s has some great undervalued stuff now too. You can blow $40 on an unproven rookie just because it is a short print in the latest hot set, or you can get a near mint Tony Dorsett rookie, for instance. Sure, maybe 5 years from now the Dorsett will still be just a 50 or 60 dollar card, but how many of those super hot, short print, get em while they last, first listed in Beckett for $200 rookie cards are on Ebay 6 months after they come out for 20 bucks?
Top
Page 4 of 5 <12345>


Moderator:  EARLSWORLD 
Hop to:
Who's Online
0 registered and 7 anonymous users online.
Newest Members
klmnop450123, abcdef863349, vwxyz{570399, nopqrs004715, tjf092071
1963 Registered Users

Generated in 0.018 seconds in which 0.001 seconds were spent on a total of 14 queries. Zlib compression disabled.