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#114 - 02/19/02 01:18 AM The future of modern graded cards?
Anonymous Unregistered



I am curious to hear other peoples opinions of the seemingly uncertain future of graded card values. Over the last year, there has been a steady decline in nearly all the prices of modern graded cards. I have quite a bit of money invested in sportscards and am debating with myself whether the market value will continue to drop. Please give me some feedback. Thanks!
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#115 - 02/20/02 03:56 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
ktronis
If I just sell the car, I can up my bid...


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 177
Loc: Baltimore, MD

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I just got back into cards last year after not having touched them since I was a kid (now I'm 33). My only advice would be to divest out of the "hot" rookie cards for guys that have only been around a year or two. It's likely the guy will have to wind up with a HOF career for his cards to maintain the same level of BV's over time. That of course is an unknown considering injuries and the fact that some guys just never reach superstardom, even though they are productive players.

You may even want to divest out of some or all of your tip-top grades like 9's and 10's of your modern cards. I think 10's MAY hold their value over time, but that's a big "if". With the great care people excercise these days when handling cards, you have to think that 9's are pretty common, and even 10's are not unheard of.

You could always use the proceeds to invest in some older cards, such as pre-1975 issues.

Well I'm no expert, but I hope this all helps!
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Phil Former ID was WhiteTornado

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#116 - 02/20/02 04:02 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
ktronis
If I just sell the car, I can up my bid...


Registered: 02/06/02
Posts: 177
Loc: Baltimore, MD

Offline
This reminded me of something I read the other day on another forum...

A guy said he pulled a serial-numbered Kobe Bryant card, of which very few were made. He wound up selling it for $1400!

That's an incredible amount of money for a player who's done great things, but has had a very short career so far. I'm sure you could take that $1400 and invest in some HOFer rookie cards from 30+ years ago and be much better off in the long run.
_________________________
Phil Former ID was WhiteTornado

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#117 - 03/05/02 10:40 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
Anonymous Unregistered



Hello, I have been dealing in graded cards for as long as the grading card boom took and before there was a grading card boom. I will tell you that if all your money is in newer graded that I think you will experience a decline in value over time. Remember a card from today comes out of the pack, goes into a soft sleeve and into a hard holder, where is the chance of it getting much worse then a 9 or a 10. You hear all the stories, everyones parents or grandparents will tell you that they had these wonderful collections as kids, what happened to these collections, they were thrown out leaving what is out there now alot more limited then any post 1975 card. Its hard to say what is going to be worth something 5 or 10 or 20 years from now. I can say if you like the player and you are speculating on future possiblities, I would only invest in Gem MInt 10's, especially if dealing in cards from 1981 and up. Remember as more 10's are given the price goes down. Believe or not there has been over 40,000 1989 Upperdeck Ken Griffey, Jr Rookies graded by PSA alone, over 1000 receiving 10's and thats just PSA, not including SGC, BGS and all the other minor companies. The one card I can't see ever really lose their value is if you are looking for short or long term investments is Pre-1970 Hall of Fame graded cards, especially Mickey Mantle and other major stars as himself. I am 27 and have been around the card market since I was a kid, so I feel I have a good grasp on what sells and what is worth holding on too.
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#118 - 05/13/02 05:13 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
Anonymous Unregistered



I don't collect the cards for the "value", I collect cards that reflect my interests. If my cards gain a little value, that is fine, but I am not collecting them so I could eventually retire. *laughs*



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#119 - 06/12/02 08:04 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
Fabfrank
(S)uper Collector


Registered: 06/11/02
Posts: 293

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As you can read from the previous posts, the majority of collectors will tell you that there is little value and/or investment potential to modern graded cards. In most cases they are right. But like in any market, there are niches of value to be found. That is the true issue. Most modern card collectors have a hodge-podge of players, hot rookies, inserts, and game-jersey cards int heir collection.
If you want to focus on modern graded cards, #1 collect the premium brands (SP Authentic, Ultra, Reserve etc.) These brands tend to hold their value over their lower tier brands (topps, fleer, score, donruss) #2 Try to submit your own cards for grading rather than buying already graded cards. This is definitely the cheaper way to go. #3 Most importantly, collect what you like. If it goes up in value-GREAT! If not- you will always get the enjoyment from owning the card.

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#120 - 06/21/02 12:07 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
Anonymous Unregistered



I think that modern graded cards are not holding value because too many cards are being produced. If you want to invest in the modern cards stick with SGC 92s or 96s. The Gem mints are no good unless you get a good deal on them and can turn them over. Rookies are too dangerous to spend the money on I think. The Gems sell for lots of $$$ but there are many Gems out there. Be sure to check the Population reports and do your homework otherwise a rookie could go down hill and your money too.

Personally I stick with players that have performed well already like Piazza, Bagwell, Bonds, Griffey Jr., Randy Johnson, Clemens, future HOFs.

I would invest 50% in HOF material and 50% in rookies. That's my opinion.

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#121 - 06/22/02 10:21 AM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
Fabfrank
(S)uper Collector


Registered: 06/11/02
Posts: 293

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Willscards- Welcome to the board. It's true, there are too many modern cards produced. That's why someone collecting modern sets should stick with the premium brands. Also there are some modern sets that will be extremely tough to put together in the future. Those are the sets with numbered shortprints. Look at some of the SP Authentic sets where the shortprints are numbered to 1000 -1500 cards. You rarely see these complete sets offered for sale. Now add in the fact that some of these cards are put into singles collections, others into team set collections and the fact that not many collectors can afford to put a set together and you can see that these sets have some investment potential.
Even if every shortprint is put into a set, the most sets available would be based on the number of shortpints. Check Ebay and see how few complete sets have been offered. When one is offered it usually goes for above Beckett Hi.
The good news is that you can get many of these cards in mint condition.
I'm currently working on a 2000 SP Authentic football set in SGC 96. I'm also working on 1998, 99,and 2001 SP Authentic sets in PSA 9.
I can't wait till SGC gets its Set Registry up so I can post my cards.

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#122 - 06/23/02 02:00 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards? [Re: Fabfrank]
Anonymous Unregistered



Good to be here Fabfrank,

You are right about the premium brands being a good investment and the short-prints.

Personally, I collect the regular issues. Of course that is NOT where the money is folks. Do not invest in the regular issues. Invest in Regular Issues = No $


Fabfrank, what about the inserts are they good investments?

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#123 - 06/23/02 02:14 PM Re: The future of modern graded cards?
Fabfrank
(S)uper Collector


Registered: 06/11/02
Posts: 293

Offline
I collect regular issues also. But if you are going to collect with an eye for investment, you have to go with the premium brands.
When people ask me what they should collect. What do I think will go up in value. I always tell them "collect what you like. If it goes up in value-GREAT! If not, you'll still have the pleasure of owning the cards"

As for inserts, Rob Veres of "Burbank Cards" says that inserts for the mid-90's are some of his best sellers. I tend to agree with him. If you didn't put together an unsert set when it first came out, it is difficult to find these cards now. They don't tend to book for a lot of $ so dealers don't bring them to shows or post them on Ebay. If you are looking for any particular insert try Burbank Cards (Rob also writes a column for Beckett.com or Neil Hoppenworths cards. They both have extensive single card inventories.

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