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#156513 - 07/06/03 08:27 PM 1960's Topps (baseball) Population Stats
deadlyembrace
The Venus Card Trap


Registered: 06/19/02
Posts: 596
Loc: Austin, TX

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Scott sent me a link from across the street discussing the relative difficulty in completing PSA-graded sets from among the 1960's Topps sets based on PSA population stats. It seemed obvious that we could benefit from an analysis of SGC's population stats as well.

Click here for a .txt file containing a detail level report of SGC Population Stats for all Topps baseball sets in the 1960's. It is based on SGC's Pop Rpts on the morning of 7/1/2003. The file is 1.2MB.

A couple of things to keep in mind:

1. SGC is inconsistent in designating variations in its pop rpts. For example, there are 3 versions of card # 139 in the 1962 Topps set, and each is separately listed in the pop stats. However, there are two variations of the 1969 Topps #151 Clay Dalrymple card: one with the Phillies (catching pose), the other with the Orioles (portrait). Only one 1969 Topps #151 card is listed in the pop stats.

2. "Total Cards in XXXX Topps Set" is not necessarily the high card number. For example, in the 1961 Topps Set, card numbers 426, 587, and 588 were never issued and there are two card number 463's.

3. "Unique Occurrences of Cards Graded" is a count of all cards in a given set's checklist for which there is at least one occurrence of an SGC graded card (... no matter what that grade might have been).

The link that Scott sent me seemed to focus on availability. That is, of all cards in the set that have been graded by PSA, how many cards have at least xx in a certain grade range. I chose three broad ranges:

Hi - 96, 98, 100
Mid - 84, 86, 88, 92
Lo - all other grades

And I chose a threshold of 5. That is, of all cards graded in the 1968 set (for example), how many have at least 5 highly graded cards? How many have at least 5 cards graded in a mid range? ... etc.

I'm working on summary stats describing this data which may be more suitable for seeing the big picture. But I thought the detail might be of interest, as well.

BTW ... now that the software is written, I can produce these reports for any of the sets contained in the population stats, adjust the set of grades in each range, etc. That is, changes are easy to make.

Feedback and suggestions would be appreciated.

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#156514 - 07/08/03 01:38 PM Re: 1960's Topps (baseball) Population Stats [Re: deadlyembrace]
tegelaar
Hobbyist


Registered: 01/03/03
Posts: 50
Loc: Boston

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Nice work! - Id love to see something on the 50's too!


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#156515 - 07/08/03 09:08 PM Re: 1960's Topps (baseball) Population Stats [Re: tegelaar]
deadlyembrace
The Venus Card Trap


Registered: 06/19/02
Posts: 596
Loc: Austin, TX

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As compared to the Detail Listing in my previous post, the Summary Stats are much easier to read. And it's much easier to draw conclusions at a glance.

The report should be self-explanatory. It is only 5k in size, and it's based on the same data files used to generate the Detail Listing.

Click here for the Summary Report.

Enjoy.


tegelaar -- I can generate the same reports for the 1950's, but wife and kids are screaming about lack of attention. It will have to wait until the weekend.

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#156516 - 07/08/03 10:51 PM Re: 1960's Topps (baseball) Population Stats [Re: deadlyembrace]
MW1
veteran


Registered: 07/30/02
Posts: 1358

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Mark,

An interesting presentation!

Two comments. I have always known that some years, although high in total production, are very scarce in high grade. 1962 is certainly an example, although I'm sure your extensive high-grade submissions in this year have skewed the statistics a bit. I also find it interesting that 1964 Topps appears to be a bit scarcer in high grades than some other, seemingly tougher 1960s issues.

The second observation is that the SGC population statistics are probably a better guide to total production figures and scarcities since constant resubmissions and the "review game" are much less frequent than with PSA. For this reason, I predict that the SGC population reports will be a much better measure of future value than the PSA population reports. Correspondingly, SGC values will be much more in sync with actual market trends -- trends that will value consistency more than mere encapsulated quantities.

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#156517 - 07/09/03 01:51 PM Population Report Comment [Re: MW1]
aconte
Bid more or post more... tough one...


Registered: 02/22/02
Posts: 1896
Loc: On The Beach....where else!

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MW1,

I think all pop reports will only be a guide. There has been a lot of
cracking of slabs on both Psa and Sgc holders. That would be my guess.
I use pop reports as a guide. But my guess is if Sgc grew to the
rate of Psa we would see the similar traits where cards would be
cracked out in search of the better grade. The only issue that
might be different right now is the WIWAG situation that occurred
with Psa.

aconte
_________________________

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#156518 - 07/11/03 06:39 AM Re: Population Report Comment [Re: aconte]
deadlyembrace
The Venus Card Trap


Registered: 06/19/02
Posts: 596
Loc: Austin, TX

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An analysis of Pop Stats will be viewed differently by individual collectors because of varying goals and perspectives. Different conclusions will be drawn, and different questions will be asked based on the new information.

For example, I was shocked at the low number of 1966 Topps cards graded. Given that SGC is gaining in reputation for it's expertise and value added re: vintage cards, you would think that more than 3000 of any/all sets in the '60s would have been submitted. Not so.

Also, it was interesting (... and disappointing) to learn that, for the 1966 and 1969 Topps sets, a large percentage of cards in the sets' checklists have not been graded at all. That can't be good news for set builders concentrating on those sets (myself included).

And due to the side-by-side comparisons, 1969 Topps collectors can easily see the "extra mountain they must try to climb" because of all the variations. I always knew the '69 set had a lot of variations, but I assumed (... based on nothing ...) that ALL sets had lots of variations. Not true.

On the other hand, '68 Topps collectors are in fat city in terms of both quantity graded and availability in grade.

Bottom line: The more information that's available, the better.

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#156519 - 07/11/03 06:47 AM Re: Population Report Comment [Re: deadlyembrace]
srs1a
Old, dense-headed hammers are cool. Best nail pounders.


Registered: 08/15/02
Posts: 987
Loc: NY

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DE, I am not sure why, but there have always been a good number of '68s in SGC holders. Several dealers (dhcards, tbergh) have had them since SGC started up. More than a few others have joined over the past few years. Good news for me!
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