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#180054 - 08/08/03 10:36 AM Anyone know why a certain thread from yesterday was deleted?
estang
(S)uper Collector


Registered: 11/15/02
Posts: 496

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It was in reference to a "KLL" starting a thread about how PSA has 93% "ebay market share". I then did a real-time ebay search and found that with PSA,Beckett,GAI, SCD and SGC it was really a 70% "ebay market share".

Even Sean from SGC chimed in at some point. Anyone know why this was deleted. I'm wondering if my research triggered a nasty dialogue that I missed. Plus it took me some time to make that post.

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Enjoy Your Collection & SKOL VIKINGS!

Erik

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#180055 - 08/08/03 11:07 AM Re: Anyone know why a certain thread from yesterday was deleted? [Re: estang]
srs1a
Old, dense-headed hammers are cool. Best nail pounders.


Registered: 08/15/02
Posts: 987
Loc: NY

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I guess we can fire the thread back up.

I responded to your post estang with the comment that I think that your results were skewed by Beckett's position in modern cards -- they are doing very well there. I did a similar search last november by decade and it looked alot different that yours. It is in another thread, so I will go get it and post it below.

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#180056 - 08/08/03 11:12 AM Re: Anyone know why a certain thread from yesterday was deleted? [Re: srs1a]
srs1a
Old, dense-headed hammers are cool. Best nail pounders.


Registered: 08/15/02
Posts: 987
Loc: NY

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this was my post from last november in the "GAI has PSA spooked" thread...from last November

******
I did a quick look at eBAY auctions to estimate what market share each of the major grading companies have in the 50's, 60's, 70's, 80's and 90's. I estimate market share by the percentage of cards for auction by each grading company (far from exact, I'm sure...but sort of interesting, anyway).

(1) the combination of PSA, SGC, BGS/BVG and GAI have >94% of the market in the 50's, 60's and 70's!...this drops to 80% in the 80's and about 40% in the 90's -- so, the offbrands have no pressence in the vintage market -- no suprise here.

(2) PSA dominates the vintage market -- 88% in the 50's, 79% in the 60's and 75% in the 70's. SGC, BGS/BVG, and GAI basically split up the rest in the 50's (2.6%, 2.6%, and 2.2%, respectively) and also in the 60's (5.6%, 4.0%, and 5.1%). SGC's best decade is the 70's (I'd wager that their best year is 77 based on what I see here!) where they've got 12.9% to 5.7 for BVG/BGS to 1% for GAI.

(3) BGS picks up steam in the 80's and 90's...while SGC drops a bit and GAI disappears.

****
I'll try to do the same searches and see how it has changed in the last 9 months.

Scott

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#180057 - 08/08/03 11:33 AM Re: Anyone know why a certain thread from yesterday was deleted? [Re: srs1a]
KLL
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Registered: 03/20/03
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I would also like to know why the thread was deleted.

I have never really followed any of the other grading services other than PSA, SGC and now, GAI. They seem to be a vintage grading company. I liked their holder. Very much like SGC (a bit lighter in weight). The overall eye appeal is close to SGC, but I like SGC's holder a bit more. I think SGC's holder seems to be a bit wider, which presents the card better.

My main question is their grading abiltity. Are they good? Has anyone had any cross over experience with GAI to SGC holders? The dealers that I spoke with at the National were very pleased, but they are selling the cards. Any collector experience?


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#180058 - 08/08/03 11:43 AM Re: Anyone know why a certain thread from yesterday was deleted? [Re: KLL]
srs1a
Old, dense-headed hammers are cool. Best nail pounders.


Registered: 08/15/02
Posts: 987
Loc: NY

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Some pretty lively discussion on the perceived strengths and weaknesses of GAI here:

http://forums.collectors.com/messageview.cfm?catid=11&threadid=211283

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#180059 - 08/08/03 12:13 PM Re: Anyone know why a certain thread from yesterday was deleted? [Re: srs1a]
srs1a
Old, dense-headed hammers are cool. Best nail pounders.


Registered: 08/15/02
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Loc: NY

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I redid the same searches that I did last November and, if anything, GAI seems to be losing traction...and BGS/BVG gaining ground. The GAI result is consistent with my feelings, the Beckett's result suprised me. SGC looks to be holding pretty steady.

50's -- PSA 85%, SGC 4.1%, GAI 2.7%, BGS/BVG 3.1%
60's -- PSA 79%, SGC 4.7%, GAI 1.9%, BGS/BVG 8.9%
70's -- PSA 89%, SGC 2.4%, GAI 1.3%, BGS/BVG 3.4%
80's -- PSA 61%, SGC 1.2%, GAI 0.6%, BGS/BVG 9%

I think that August is about the slowest month of the year on eBAY for cards, so take all of this with a grain of salt -- the numbers for the 70's look especially funny.

One more comment, the searches that I did seem to inflate the PSA numbers since they catch all the PRO auctions that "offer a free PSA card of their choice" or similar trick to show up in a PSA search. I know I saw several of these in the search results.

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#180060 - 08/08/03 01:14 PM Re: Anyone know why a certain thread from yesterday was deleted? [Re: estang]
SeanSGC
Everything SGC


Registered: 02/01/02
Posts: 70
Loc: NJ

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The thread was removed by the moderators because some of the posts had become unproductive and not very constructive. However, I encourage healthy discussions about our industry including market share as it relates to grading services, etc. Please feel free to continue the discussion and hopefully it will be done in a more productive fashion this time. If anyone has any questions for me about this topic or anything else, please feel free to ask and I will be happy to comment.

Regards,
Sean-SGC

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#180061 - 08/08/03 01:47 PM Re: Anyone know why a certain thread from yesterday was deleted? [Re: estang]
estang
(S)uper Collector


Registered: 11/15/02
Posts: 496

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Thanks.

I read the SCD weekly today about The National in Atlantic City. Looked like the reviews were mixed (aren't they always). Their report seemed to have missed any observations about grading card companies. I'm in the ATL area and that is the only National I attended, which seems to have been considered one of the worst. Even Mr. Mint stated something to the effect that Atlantic City is right up there with Atlanta as the worst cities for The National. Too bad, because we don't have a single decent card show around here. I had nothing to compare it to. I found it huge and interesting.

Anyway, I think SGC is doing a great job and their "ebay market share" and visibility has grown since I've been doing ebay searches. I guess I still don't understand why Beckett is more popular for modern cards than vintage. It is a large disparity.
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Enjoy Your Collection & SKOL VIKINGS!

Erik

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#180062 - 08/08/03 03:12 PM Re: Anyone know why a certain thread from yesterday was deleted? [Re: estang]
srs1a
Old, dense-headed hammers are cool. Best nail pounders.


Registered: 08/15/02
Posts: 987
Loc: NY

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I wonder what happened after I went to bed.


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#180063 - 08/08/03 03:28 PM Re: Anyone know why a certain thread from yesterday was deleted? [Re: KLL]
deadlyembrace
The Venus Card Trap


Registered: 06/19/02
Posts: 596
Loc: Austin, TX

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It's risky to draw conclusions about the relative strengths among card grading companies IN THEIR INDUSTRY based on the percentage of cards, graded by each company, that are available on Ebay at any given time.

The presumption is that EVERY card graded by each company is subsequently sold on Ebay, and therefore, a check of "Ebay representation" can be used to gauge market share of each company.

That's crazy!!

I'd appreciate it if someone would enlighten this ignorant, southern dumba$s and explain the connection between Ebay availability and card grading industry market share.


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#180064 - 08/08/03 05:11 PM Re: Anyone know why a certain thread from yesterday was deleted? [Re: estang]
KLL
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Registered: 03/20/03
Posts: 62

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Was SCD grading on site? I have yet to see their holder. Matter of fact, I never saw SCD while I was at the show. They are sometimes set up at shows giving away copies of the SCD and other Krause publications.
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#180065 - 08/09/03 04:43 AM Dear Southern Stooge [Re: deadlyembrace]
estang
(S)uper Collector


Registered: 11/15/02
Posts: 496

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...errr...Mr. 62 Topps.

This point was raised before on the since abolished thread. Excellent point. The "ebay market share" is a just one market share indicator for post-card grading and the best. It is better and more precise than tracking down card show and card shop and other auction houses.

However, the true market share that ebay can't capture is those who keep and don't re-sell after grading...collectors like myself.

It seems that someone who had a lot of time would have to add up through the card grading company's population report everything that they've graded, unless they all publish this somewhere.

The reality is that PSA has the lions share of the overall graded card industry. It appears that Beckett is very strong on modern cards (still don't understand why) and SGC is stronger in vintage (known more for tob.) than modern. SCD is small and probably too connected to Fristch/one dealer (which hurts them) and GAI appears to get their market share from ex-PSA folks.
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Enjoy Your Collection & SKOL VIKINGS!

Erik

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#180066 - 08/09/03 08:16 AM Re: Southern Stooge??? Hm-m-m [Re: estang]
deadlyembrace
The Venus Card Trap


Registered: 06/19/02
Posts: 596
Loc: Austin, TX

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Quote:

The "ebay market share" is a just one market share indicator for post-card grading and the best. It is better and more precise than tracking down card show and card shop and other auction houses.





If I understand you correctly, we're in agreement. Ebay stats gauge market demand and have absolutely nothing to do with market share.

You only have to consider what comprises the total number of cards sold via Ebay at any given time. Cards are sold, re-sold and re-sold again and again and again. The 2nd through Nth sale represents zero benefit to the grading company ... other than, perhaps, promotional value. Resale transactions comprise some unknown percentage of "EbayWorld" and have nothing to do with measuring the relative strengths of the grading companies because they have zero impact to those companies' bottom lines.

BTW, estang, I was born in Minnesota (in Fergus Falls which is in Ottertail County) and grew up listening to the Twins on radio in the 1960's. Here in Texas, counties are named after war heros from Texas' battle with Mexico for independence. In Minnesota, apparently, it's preferable to name counties after the a$s-end of rodents. Thankfully, I've lived in the South for the last 35+ years.


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#180067 - 08/09/03 04:07 PM Re: Southern Stooge??? Hm-m-m [Re: deadlyembrace]
remo
Collector


Registered: 08/29/02
Posts: 92
Loc: washington state

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I thought this was a sports cards message board not an insult board and btw i was born in minnesota also and if i could would move back there in a heartbeat its a wonderful state.
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#180068 - 08/09/03 04:23 PM Re: Southern Stooge??? Hm-m-m [Re: remo]
MW1
veteran


Registered: 07/30/02
Posts: 1358

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Remo,

No reason to be insulted. Mark's post is just in good fun. Besides, he's kind of right about Minnesota (keep in mind I'm from the Midwest).

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#180069 - 08/09/03 08:03 PM Re: Southern Stooge??? Hm-m-m [Re: remo]
deadlyembrace
The Venus Card Trap


Registered: 06/19/02
Posts: 596
Loc: Austin, TX

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Hey remo --

I wasn't trying to anger anyone. I was responding in kind and (hopefully) with tongue firmly planted in cheek. No one should take offense ESPECIALLY my fellow Twins fans. Estang -- were you insulted or did you smile?

Also, hopefully, the point of the thread hasn't been lost.


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#180070 - 08/10/03 05:17 AM I'm all smiles [Re: deadlyembrace]
estang
(S)uper Collector


Registered: 11/15/02
Posts: 496

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All is good. Hey, I'm going back up to MN (where I grew up) for their State Fair. There doesn't seem to be any quality card shows when I'll be in town. The Twin Cities generally puts on good shows with quality stuff, including vintage.

Today, I'll spend some of my day picking cards for my next SGC submission.
_________________________
Enjoy Your Collection & SKOL VIKINGS!

Erik

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