99 times out of 100, ebay would rule in your favor on a S.N.A.D., especially with messages you exchanged with him admitting it.
Now that you've ended the case, I'd say you're about 50/50 on getting your money back.
Ebay case management is the buyer's friend and the seller's worst enemy. Don't ever close out a case until you're sure the seller is not a scammer.
#1 in 1959 Topps. Officially known as Assassin according to stanthemanfan 3/31/2014 and god of minor league basketball according to cammb.