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#9079 - 12/26/02 11:44 AM Re: GA has PSA Heads Spooked [Re: downgoesfrazier]
srs1a
Old, dense-headed hammers are cool. Best nail pounders.


Registered: 08/15/02
Posts: 987
Loc: NY

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Hi 77s -- nice to see you back!

As you are aware, there ijas been alot of interesting discussion on GAI on the "other board" over the past week.

The way I read the tea leaves is that some people are very interested in GAI, while others seem to avoid them like the plague, and for the same reasons -- their experiences with PSA when the GAI folks were there.

Who knows which way this thing will go. I thought the most interesting piece of the discussion was a general acknowledgement that there are 3 grading companies out there today that "know how to grade" -- PSA, SGC, and GAI. I thought that this was great news for SGC -- they are definately respected by collectors of PSA slabs.

Scott

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#9080 - 12/26/02 04:55 PM Re: GA has PSA Heads Spooked [Re: deadlyembrace]
downgoesfrazier
I am gonna miss that car.


Registered: 08/02/02
Posts: 222
Loc: Summer of '77

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DE,

Regarding SGC's day-to-day: "Slow and Steady wins the race..." I have no information here, just a vibe. The GAI/PSA thing is real. PSA guys with a false sense of security (you know the guys who assume because there are more PSA graded cards on eBay everything's peachy) are in for a rude awakening late next fall...

Scott,
Yeah, I'm one of the guys who posted that. Like SGC, GAI is the real deal. I would love to see SGC go nuts and make a huge splash. Change their flips, go to $250 flat rate 100-card submissions, etc. Go loud and public with it. PSA's inability to apply their standards consistently has created an immediate business op. There's still some die-hards there, but most, like me, are finishing what we started and exploring options. If GAI would cross my set for nothing, they'd have it. I'm not alone. SGC is solid and I'll be doing a set with them in 2003. My 78's need a home...
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#9081 - 12/27/02 03:49 AM Re: GA has PSA Heads Spooked [Re: downgoesfrazier]
Anonymous Unregistered



To some collectors it matters that there are more cards of a certain company on ebay. If you collect a 71 Topps Baseball set and all you can buy on ebay are PSA cards it certainly means you are more likely to try and pursue a PSA set. Does PSA do the best job grading? Everybody has different ideas and standards and apparently many have stated that GAI and SGC are more consistent. The problem with that is that PSA cards still sell for more money and hence, dealers are more likely to submit cards to PSA. For SGC to make a dent or GAI they need to get some of the big collectors/dealers involved. If you look at the top 100 dealers/collectors in the hobby, too many of them are attached to PSA. The fact that BMW uses SGC certainly helps them nationally but until other big time dealers or collectors switch to SGC gaining ground will always be a big uphill climb.
Many of PSA's top dealers also use GAI but very few have completely switched over. How many dealers are willing to convert their inventory and lose money.
In talking to Mastro at a show, they informed me that they believed that GAI, PSA and SGC all did a good job for them but with the PSA set registry and other factors PSA cards still sold the best. Once that perception changes the other companies can win the battle but until than gaining ground as I stated earlier is a big uphill climb.
Albie

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#9082 - 12/27/02 03:51 AM Re: GA has PSA Heads Spooked
Rickdogg
Vigilante Dachshund


Registered: 08/08/02
Posts: 8132
Loc: The OC, California

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Feel free to register so we can put a name to your post
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Jtuned feature!

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#9083 - 12/27/02 03:56 AM Re: GA has PSA Heads Spooked
srs1a
Old, dense-headed hammers are cool. Best nail pounders.


Registered: 08/15/02
Posts: 987
Loc: NY

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Well said Albie. Closing the "business equation" is required for SGC (or GAI for that matter) to really hit it big. The current environment offers an excellent opportunity, my fingers are crossed.


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#9084 - 12/27/02 03:57 AM Re: GA has PSA Heads Spooked [Re: downgoesfrazier]
deadlyembrace
The Venus Card Trap


Registered: 06/19/02
Posts: 596
Loc: Austin, TX

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It's 11:30 AM EST on Friday, Dec 27th, and CLCT is down 15.01% on no new published company news.

Are our friends across the street experiencing a slow, ugly death spiral ... or are we witnessing a crash-n-burn in progress?

I'd be interested in opinions of a hypothetical (looming???) scenario:

What is the viability of PSA as a standalone company should its parent fold? Forget its position in the marketplace ... it needs cash to operate. How does it get funding to remain afloat? Speculation is already in the public domain that PSA's grading standards are suspect and inconsistent? Would standards be deliberately compromised to encourage continued submissions and ongoing cash flow?


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#9085 - 12/27/02 05:05 AM Re: GA has PSA Heads Spooked [Re: deadlyembrace]
srs1a
Old, dense-headed hammers are cool. Best nail pounders.


Registered: 08/15/02
Posts: 987
Loc: NY

Offline
DE, you asked some tough questions. It seems hard for me to understand how a 3rd party grading company could ever think it was a good idea to change its standards to accomodate a less than positive business environment. If it were me, I'd try to generate more cash with aggressive pricing.

Joe Orlando (pres of PSA) posted some stuff of the other board saying that they were grading about 100k cards per month -- if one assumes an average price in the $6/card range, they are grossing about 600k/month...it is hard for me to believe that their expenses could be close to this, so I would expect PSA has a positive cash flow. If this isn't the case, I would expect it could be the case in relatively short order.

BTW, he also said that they employed "at least 12 graders"...if one assumes that means 12 graders...and assuming 175 hrs worked per month...and 100k cards graded per month -- means 1.25 minutes per card per grader! If one assumes that they have more than one set of eyes review a card, this increases the pace even further. This rate is absolutely stunning to me and easy to understand their current set of issues.


Scott

P.S. at noon they are down >16%, but very low volume (8k shares -vs- an average full-day volume of 33k). ?????



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#9086 - 12/27/02 05:11 AM Re: GA has PSA Heads Spooked [Re: srs1a]
vayank
The Amazing Card-Man


Registered: 04/13/02
Posts: 948
Loc: Alexandria, Va

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I believe there is something going on with the stock -- perhaps an insider is selling stock. There are a handful of institutional holders too. Yesterday, the price dropped about 25% and than spiked up to almost break even -- close at least. Volume 30K some odd. That's converted 1 to 4 stock, which equates to about 120K volume pre-reverse split. Who knows?
_________________________
---- Matthew T. Natale Alexandria, Virginia Completed 1977 Topps Baseball SGC Graded Set, Average Grade 92.89

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#9087 - 12/27/02 05:51 AM Re: GA has PSA Heads Spooked [Re: downgoesfrazier]
77collector
Learning the Ropes


Registered: 10/02/02
Posts: 23
Loc: The SGC boards

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Out of respect for board members and to do the right thing in regards to 77s specifically, I am editing this out.

77s - good luck. Regardless of our differences, I will always honestly think you have some truly nice cards in that set of yours no matter what any particular grading company has determined.

May the new year be a happier one for all.


Edited by 77collector (12/29/02 01:05 PM)

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#9088 - 12/27/02 06:50 AM Re: GA has PSA Heads Spooked [Re: vayank]
aconte
Bid more or post more... tough one...


Registered: 02/22/02
Posts: 1896
Loc: On The Beach....where else!

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I think because the stock is so narrowly priced swings such as this might
be taken for a grain of salt. I could be wrong but I've see this many times
before. Especially in some biotech and mfg companies.

My biggest concern with Psa is that they have continued to lose money
with all the submissions they receive. I think their expenses are too
high. They should be making a higher profit margin before taxes (EBIT).
I'm not an industry expert but I conclude that earnings should be better
than they have been.

The other concern with Psa is with the increased amount of inconsistencies,
poor accuracy, and mislabeling of cards. I've seen this with some red
man cards. I've attached an example below:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&category=16271&item=1985161858

I'm concerned because while I'm a Sgc red man collector I am putting
my 53 set in Psa. It is definitely easier to buy Sgc red man cards sight
unseen than Psa. Psa red man's are a riskier deal.

P.S. I have my 55 set on the Registry now too. I hope to cross about
a dozen Psa holdered cards to Sgc at the next Ft. Washington show.
To quote another "Red man's rock!"

aconte
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